The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)
Points and comments are a snapshot, not live.
A 2011 long bet predicted http://www.longbets.org/601 would fail within 11 years.
The bet, running from 2011 to 2022, involved $1,000 stakes: Keith argued link rot would break the URL, while Haughey argued stable URI systems were mature enough. The conditions required the URL to still return an HTML document containing the prediction text, with 301 redirects allowed. On February 22, 2022, the winner was determined.
What commenters are saying
Commenters noted the bet's reliance on HTTP and potential browser-level HTTPS upgrades. Some pointed out that JavaScript-rendered content might not satisfy the "HTML document" clause. Others debated the practical challenges of long-term URL persistence, including hosting costs and institutional will. A few shared personal examples of maintaining decades-old URLs, with one commenter citing 24 years of continuous uptime for a project.